Comments
A ‘neutral’ year and a La Nina are equally likely for the second half of the New Year (2016), according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
La Nina is the alter ego of El Nino and could likely coincide with the annual Indian monsoon if it were to occur as predicted during the second half of this year.
Equally likely Models suggest that both a neutral year and La Niña are equally likely in the second half of 2016, with a repeat of El Nino the least likely outcome, the Australian Bureau said.
Even a ‘neutral year’ (neither El Nino nor La Niña) could likely ensure safe passage of the monsoon, which was a disaster in the year just past after being hit hard by one of the strongest El Nino events in the past 50 years.
The monsoon ended up with a deficit of 14 per cent in 2015, the second consecutive drought year, and only the third such instance in the last 100 years.
Peaks over La Nina is traditionally associated with a normal to above-normal Indian monsoon although there is no direct one-to-one relationship between the two.
The Australian Bureau said based on 26 El Nino events since 1900, around 50 per cent have been followed by a neutral year, while 40 per cent have been followed by a La Nina.
It added that available signs indicated the El Nino of 2015 may have peaked over. It quoted climate models to suggest that the 2015-16 event will decline during the coming months.
Its impact on weather worldwide has been so entrenched that the winter that ensued has proved to be a warm one with adverse implications for the Rabi crop in the North-West.
Dry winter It was among the driest the national capital has witnessed with not even one chill-inducing rainy day. It was also notable that December saw the least number of dense fog days in at least five years, leading to fewer flight and train disruptions.
Normally, the peak season for dense to very dense fog conditions prevails over the entire North-West, especially New Delhi, during a critical one-month period from December 15.
But this year has been different, with weather-inducing western disturbances that bring crucial precipitation to North-West India and dense fog in the region, being less frequent.
Those reporting in did not have the required amplitude to trigger the usual thundershowers over the Rabi landscape.
Comments
COMMENT NOW
Comments
Comments have to be in English, and in full sentences. They cannot be abusive or personal. Please abide by our community guidelines for posting your comments.
We have migrated to a new commenting platform. If you are already a registered user of TheHindu Businessline and logged in, you may continue to engage with our articles. If you do not have an account please register and login to post comments. Users can access their older comments by logging into their accounts on Vuukle.